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Analyzed Groups of Countries
| Group | Member States |
|---|---|
| Eurozone new Member States | Cyprus, Estonia, Malta, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia |
| Non-Eurozone new Member States | Bulgaria, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania |
| EU-14+1 (the core) | Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, The United Kingdom |
Absolute convergence of the Eurozone new Member States towards the EU-14+1
| Model 1 2004–2018 | Model 2 2004–2008 | Model 3 2009–2013 | Model 4 2014–2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | β | β | |
| Log of initial per capita GDP at PPP | −2.43*** (−3.78) | −4.84*** (−5.66) | −1.02 (−0.94) | −1.15 (−0.84) |
| Half-life | 28 | 14 | – | – |
| Number of observations | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| Number of panel observations | 330 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| F statistics (p-value) | 14.31 (0.0012) | 32.07 (0.0000) | 0.89 (0.3562) | 0.95 (0.3410) |
| R2 | 0.4170 | 0.5967 | 0.0427 | 0.0338 |
| Breusch-Pagan test | 0.5757 | 0.6745 | 0.5147 | 0.0692 |
Conditional convergence process of the Eurozone new Member States towards the EU-14+1
| Model 9 2004–2018 | Model 10 2004–2008 | Model 11 2009–2013 | Model 12 2014–2018 | Model 12’ 2014–2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | β | β | β | |
| Log of initial per capita GDP | −3.21*** (−3.46) | −4.42*** (−3.44) | −3.46** (−2.41) | −3.55* (−1.99) | −3.55*** (−3.05) |
| Half-life | 21 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| Economic openness | 0.01*** (3.64) | 0.01* (1.80) | 0.01** (2.33) | 0.01** (2.70) | 0.01*** (5.17) |
| Inflation rate | −0.02 (−0.05) | 0.70** (2.32) | 0.14 (0.28) | −1.44** (−2.17) | −1.44 (−1.27) |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 0.13 (1.55) | −0.05 (−0.44) | 0.10 (0.69) | 0.37*** (3.08) | 0.37 (1.63) |
| Government integrity | 2.46 (1.51) | 3.37 (1.41) | 6.30** (2.24) | 0.33 (0.09) | 0.33 (0.11) |
| Number of observations | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Number of panel observations | 330 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| F statistics (p-value) | 11.03 (0.0001) | 12.83 (0.0000) | 2.85 (0.0502) | 5.15 (0.0053) | 9.47 (0.0002) |
| R2 | 0.7752 | 0.8004 | 0.4710 | 0.6168 | 0.6168 |
| Breusch-Pagan test | 0.1434 | 0.0904 | 0.1771 | 0.0099 |
Conditional convergence process of the non-Eurozone new Member States towards the EU-14+1
| Model 13 2004–2018 | Model 14 2004–2008 | Model 14’ 2004–2008 | Model 15 2009–2013 | Model 16 2014–2018 | Model 16’ 2014–2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | β | β | β | β | |
| Log of initial per capita GDP | −3.45*** (−3.87) | −4.39*** (−3.12) | −4.39*** (−3.88) | −3.73** (−2.28) | −1.91 (−0.97) | −1.91 (−0.95) |
| Half-life | 20 | 16 | 16 | 18 | – | – |
| Economic openness | 0.01*** (3.02) | 0.01* (1.93) | 0.01** (2.26) | 0.01 (1.43) | 0.01 (1.53) | 0.01** (2.31) |
| Inflation rate | −0.18 (−0.53) | 0.16 (0.56) | 0.16 (0.51) | 0.14 (0.39) | −1.84** (−2.22) | −1.84 (−1.29) |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 0.14* (1.82) | 0.04 (0.39) | 0.04 (0.45) | 0.12 (1.02) | 0.36*** (3.19) | 0.36* (1.83) |
| Government integrity | 2.99* (1.99) | 2.04 (0.98) | 2.04 (1.29) | 7.25** (2.76) | −0.51 (−0.14) | −0.51 (−0.17) |
| Number of observations | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Number of panel observations | 315 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| F statistics (p-value) | 10.03 (0.0002) | 11.04 (0.0001) | 10.90 (0.0001) | 2.54 (0.0744) | 4.90 (0.0074) | 4.64 (0.0093) |
| R2 | 0.7716 | 0.7863 | 0.7863 | 0.4581 | 0.6203 | 0.6203 |
| Breusch-Pagan test | 0.3560 | 0.0.324 | 0.3780 | 0.0327 |
Descriptive Statistics
| Variable | Description | Mean | Standard deviation | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per capita GDP growth | Annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita based on constant local currency | 1.96 | 1.56 | −0.66 | 4.84 |
| Log (initial per capita GDP) | Natural logarithm of per capita GDP at the beginning of the analyzed period | 10.03 | 0.47 | 9.10 | 11.07 |
| Economic openness | The sum of exports and imports divided by GDP | 120.70 | 66.35 | 53.92 | 345.42 |
| Inflation rate | Measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices | 2.18 | 0.90 | 0.97 | 4.65 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | Measured as a percentage of GDP | 21.91 | 2.72 | 16.73 | 27.79 |
| Government integrity | The Index values range between 0 and 100. It measures the level of corruption | 63 | 18 | 36 | 93 |
Absolute convergence of the non-Eurozone new Member States towards the EU-14+1
| Model 5 2004–2017 | Model 6 2004–2008 | Model 7 2009–2013 | Model 8 2014–2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | β | β | |
| Log of initial per capita GDP at PPP | −1.94*** (−3.85) | −3.61*** (−5.96) | −0.68 (−0.73) | −1.47 (−1.29) |
| Half-life | 36 | 19 | – | – |
| Number of observations | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Number of panel observations | 315 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| F statistics (p-value) | 14.85 (0.0011) | 35.53 (0.0000) | 0.54 (0.4726) | 1.661.66 (0.2131) |
| R2 | 0.4386 | 0.6516 | 0.0275 | 0.0803 |
| Breusch-Pagan test | 0.6771 | 0.8717 | 0.2686 | 0.0682 |