Accuracy of 23 Equations for Estimating LDL Cholesterol in a Clinical Laboratory Database of 5,051,467 Patients

Background: Alternatives to the Friedewald low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) equation have been proposed.

Objective: To compare the accuracy of available LDL-C equations with ultracentrifugation measurement.

Methods: We used the second harvest of the Very Large Database of Lipids (VLDbL), which is a population-representative convenience sample of adult and pediatric patients (N = 5,051,467) with clinical lipid measurements obtained via the vertical auto profile (VAP) ultracentrifugation method between October 1, 2015 and June 30, 2019. We performed a systematic literature review to identify available LDL-C equations and compared their accuracy according to guideline-based classification. We also compared the equations by their median error versus ultracentrifugation. We evaluated LDL-C equations overall and stratified by age, sex, fasting status, and triglyceride levels, as well as in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, kidney disease, inflammation, and thyroid dysfunction.

Results: Analyzing 23 identified LDL-C equations in 5,051,467 patients (mean±SD age, 56±16 years; 53.3% women), the Martin/Hopkins equation most accurately classified LDL-C to the correct category (89.6%), followed by the Sampson (86.3%), Chen (84.4%), Puavilai (84.1%), Delong (83.3%), and Friedewald (83.2%) equations. The other 17 equations were less accurate than Friedewald, with accuracy as low as 35.1%. The median error of equations ranged from –10.8 to 18.7 mg/dL, and was best optimized using the Martin/Hopkins equation (0.3, IQR–1.6 to 2.4 mg/dL). The Martin/Hopkins equation had the highest accuracy after stratifying by age, sex, fasting status, triglyceride levels, and clinical subgroups. In addition, one in five patients who had Friedewald LDL-C <70 mg/dL, and almost half of the patients with Friedewald LDL-C <70 mg/dL and triglyceride levels 150–399 mg/dL, had LDL-C correctly reclassified to >70 mg/dL by the Martin/Hopkins equation.

Conclusions: Most proposed alternatives to the Friedewald equation worsen LDL-C accuracy, and their use could introduce unintended disparities in clinical care. The Martin/Hopkins equation demonstrated the highest LDL-C accuracy overall and across subgroups.