Figure 1
The average occurrence and casualty for subgroups of natural disasters from 1990 to 2017.
* The average occurrence for extra-terrestrial disasters is 0.056.
Figure 2
Map of trends in natural disaster occurrence, DALYs rate due to IHD from 1990 to 2017 in 193 countries. (A) Trend in DALYs due to IHD, per 100,000 population per year. (B) Trend in the occurrence of natural disasters, per year. (C) Trend in total damage due to natural disasters, 1000 US$ per year.
Table 1
Summary statistics of natural disaster impact, age-standardized mortality and DALYs due to IHD during two periods in 193 countries.
| 1990 to 2013 | 2014 to 2017 | Trends | P value* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural disaster | ||||
| Occurrence | 1.77 ± 3.19 | 2.00 ± 3.56 | 0.23 ± 1.09 | 0.004 |
| Casualty | 3.21 × 104 ± 2.86 × 105 | 1.27 × 104 ± 6.58 × 104 | –1.95 × 104 ± 2.66 × 105 | 0.310 |
| Total damage | 3.28 × 105 ± 1.55 × 106 | 7.70 × 105 ± 4.59 × 106 | 4.41 × 105 ± 3.18 × 106 | 0.055 |
| DALYs | ||||
| Male | 3030.950 ± 2154.273 | 2791.383 ± 2108.517 | –239.567 ± 832.113 | 0.000 |
| Female | 1966.962 ± 1437.111 | 1743.577 ± 1388.023 | –223.385 ± 502.153 | 0.000 |
| Both | 2494.384 ± 1757.926 | 2263.474 ± 1711.314 | –230.91 ± 647.01 | 0.000 |
[i] * One-sample T-test, test value = 0.
Table 2
Correlation of natural disaster impact, age-standardized mortality and DALYs due to IHD during two periods in 193 countries.
| Occurrence | Casualty | Total damage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R* | P value | R | P value | R | P value | |
| Male | 0.128 | .076 | –0.084 | 0.248 | –0.032 | 0.660 |
| Female | 0.163 | 0.024 | –0.105 | 0.145 | –0.040 | 0.576 |
| Total | 0.146 | 0.043 | –0.095 | 0.190 | –0.036 | 0.620 |
[i] * Pearson correlation.
Table 3
Multivariate linear regression derived coefficients of natural disaster and socioeconomic variables on DALYs due to IHD for males, female and both sexes from 1990 to 2017 in 193 countries, weighted by population.
| Factors | DALYs* for male | DALYs** for female | DALYs*** for both sexes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficients (95% CI) | Standardized Coefficients | P value | Coefficients (95% CI) | Standardized Coefficients | P value | Coefficients (95% CI) | Standardized Coefficients | P value | |
| Natural disaster | |||||||||
| Occurrence | 39.955(7.473–72.436) | 0.192 | 0.016 | 30.323(9.867–50.780) | 0.230 | 0.004 | 31.122(5.547–57.698) | 0.187 | 0.022 |
| Casualty | NA† | 0.088 | 0.462 | NA† | 0.027 | 0.823 | NA† | 0.154 | 0.216 |
| Total damage | 2.035 × 10–5(1.043 × 10–5–3.027 × 10–5) | 0.243 | 0.000 | 1.103 × 10–5(4.952 × 10–6–1.712 × 10–5) | 0.208 | 0.000 | 1.434 × 10–7(6.387 × 10–6–2.229 × 10–5) | 0.214 | 0.000 |
| Fat&Meat | NA | –0.050 | 0.464 | NA | –0.013 | 0.832 | NA | –0.057 | 0.390 |
| Tobacco | 27.361(8.214–46.509) | 0.138 | 0.005 | 21.012(9.739–32.286) | 0.167 | 0.000 | 23.758(9.124–38.392) | 0.149 | 0.002 |
| Alcohol | NA | 0.037 | 0.511 | NA | –0.068 | 0.114 | NA | 0.045 | 0.400 |
| GDP per capita | –0.146(–0.174–0.119) | –0.642 | 0.000 | –0.073(–0.089–0.057) | –0.508 | 0.000 | –0.112(–0.133–0.090) | –0.612 | 0.000 |
| Life expectancy (males) | –43.361(–77.655–90.67) | –0.125 | 0.013 | NA | –0.083 | 0.098 | –28.297(–54.091–2.503) | –0.107 | 0.032 |
| Education expenditure (% of GDP) | NA | 0.003 | 0.944 | NA | –0.033 | 0.477 | NA | –0.022 | 0.643 |
| Urban population(% of total) | NA | 0.135 | 0.116 | 12.961(1.605–24.316) | 0.180 | 0.026 | 14.097(–0.667–28.860) | 0.154 | 0.061 |
| CO2 emissions | 129.996(58.992–201.070) | 0.276 | 0.000 | 67.230(19.899–114.562) | 0.225 | 0.006 | 83.620(22.183–145.058) | 0.221 | 0.008 |
| Trade (% of GDP) | NA | 0.022 | 0.654 | NA | 0.047 | 0.298 | NA | 0.038 | 0.415 |
| Industry | NA | 0.148 | 0.092 | NA | 0.128 | 0.118 | NA | 0.138 | 0.100 |
[i] * Stepwise method was used, R2 = 0.589, F = 43.879, p = 0.000.
** Stepwise method was used, R2 = 0.643, F = 55.277, p = 0.000.
*** Stepwise method was used, R2 = 0.628, F = 44.065, p = 0.000.
† Not applicable for variables not included as predictors.