Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
SeFo: A Package for Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from NMME Predictive Ensembles Cover

SeFo: A Package for Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from NMME Predictive Ensembles

By: Nir Y Krakauer  
Open Access
|May 2016

References

  1. National Research Council Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Technical report 2010 10.17226/12878
  2. Troccoli A Seasonal climate forecasting Meteorological Applications 2010 17 251 268 10.1002/met.184
  3. Alemu E T Palmer R N Polebitski A Meaker B Decision support system for optimizing reservoir operations using ensemble streamflow predictions J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt 2011 137 1 72 82 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000088
  4. Smith D M Scaife A A Kirtman B P What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? Environmental Research Letters 2012 7 1 015602 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602
  5. Doblas-Reyes F J García-Serrano J Lienert F Biescas A P Rodrigues L R L Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2013 4 4 10.1002/wcc.217
  6. Arribas A Glover M Maidens A Peterson K Gordon M MacLachlan C Graham R Fereday D Camp J Scaife A A Xavier P McLean P Colman A Cusack S The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting Monthly Weather Review 2011 139 6 1891 1910 10.1175/2010MWR3615.1
  7. Wang Q J Schepen A Robertson D E Merging seasonal rainfall forecasts from multiple statistical models through Bayesian model averaging Journal of Climate 2012 25 12 5524 5537 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00386.1
  8. Peng P Kumar A Halpert M S Barnston A G An analysis of CPC’s operational 0.5-month lead seasonal outlooks Weather and Forecasting 2012 27 4 898 917 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00143.1
  9. Pavan V Doblas-Reyes F J Calibrated multi-model ensemble summer temperature predictions over Italy Climate Dynamics 2013 41 11 2115 2132 10.1007/s00382-013-1869-7
  10. Krakauer N Y Grossberg M D Gladkova I Aizenman H Information content of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate Advances in Meteorology 2013 2013 480210 10.1155/2013/480210
  11. Hawthorne S Wang Q J Schepen A Robertson D Effective use of general circulation model outputs for forecasting monthly rainfalls to long lead times Water Resources Research 2013 10.1002/wrcr.20453
  12. Dutton J A James R P Ross J D Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk Climate Dynamics 2013 40 11–12 3089 3106 10.1007/s00382-013-1764-2
  13. DelSole T Jia L Tippett M K Scale-selective ridge regression for multimodel forecasting Journal of Climate 2013 26 20 7957 7965 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00030.1
  14. Yatagai A Krishnamurti T N Kumar V Mishra A K Simon A Use of APHRODITE rain gauge–based precipitation and TRMM 3B43 products for improving Asian monsoon seasonal precipitation forecasts by the superensemble method Journal of Climate 2014 27 3 1062 1069 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00332.1
  15. Wilks D S Comparison of probabilistic statistical forecast and trend adjustment methods for North American seasonal temperatures Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2014 53 4 935 949 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0294.1
  16. Mwangi E Wetterhall F Dutra E Di Giuseppe F Pappenberger F Forecasting droughts in East Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2014 18 2 611 620 10.5194/hess-18-611-2014
  17. Mo K C Lettenmaier D P Hydrologic prediction over the Conterminous United States using the National Multi-Model Ensemble Journal of Hydrometeorology 2014 15 4 1457 1472 10.1175/JHM-D-13-0197.1
  18. Kumar S Dirmeyer P A Kinter J L III Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub-seasonal to intra-annual forecasting Geophysical Research Letters 2014 41 10 3586 3593 10.1002/2014GL059586
  19. Dutra E Wetterhall F Di Giuseppe F Naumann G Barbosa P Vogt J Pozzi W Pappenberger F Global meteorological drought – Part 1: Probabilistic monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2014 18 7 2657 2667 10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014
  20. Krakauer N Y Devineni N Up-to-date probabilistic temperature climatologies Environmental Research Letters 2015 10 2 024014 10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024014
  21. Eaton J W Bateman D Hauberg S GNU Octave Manual Version 3 2008 Network Theory Limited URL http://www.network-theory.co.uk/octave/manual/
  22. Eaton J W GNU Octave and reproducible research Journal of Process Control 2012 22 8 1433 1438 10.1016/j.jprocont.2012.04.006
  23. Rohde R Muller R Jacobsen R Perlmutter S Rosenfeld A Wurtele J Curry J Wickham C Mosher S Berkeley Earth temperature averaging process Geoinformatics and Geostatistics: An Overview 2013 1 2 1000103 10.4172/2327-4581.1000103
  24. Kalnay E Kanamitsu M Kistler R Collins W Deaven D Gandin L Iredell M Saha S White G Woollen J Zhu Y Leetmaa A Reynolds R Chelliah M Ebisuzaki W Higgins W Janowiak J Mo K C Ropelewski C Wang J Jenne R Joseph D The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1996 77 3 437 471 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<;0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
  25. Fan Y van den Dool H A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present Journal of Geophysical Research 2008 10.1029/2007JD008470
  26. Kirtman B P Min D Infanti J M Kinter J L Paolino D A Zhang Q van den Dool H Saha S Mendez M P Becker E Peng P Tripp P Huang J DeWitt D G Tippett M K Barnston A G Li S Rosati A Schubert S D Rienecker M Suarez M Li Z E Marshak J Lim Y-K Tribbia J Pegion K Merryfield W J Denis B Wood E F The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2014 95 585 601 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
  27. Blumenthal M Benno B Michael C John d Cousin R Khomyakov I IRI Data Library: enhancing accessibility of climate knowledge Earth Perspectives 2014 1 1 1 12 10.1186/2194-6434-1-19
  28. Linear Algebra Package for GNU Octave 2015 URL http://octave.sourceforge.net/linear-algebra
  29. Schloegl A NaN Package for GNU Octave 2015 URL http://octave.sourceforge.net/nan
  30. Barth A NetCDF Package for GNU Octave 2015 URL http://octave.sourceforge.net/netcdf
  31. Krakauer N Y Splines Package for GNU Octave 2015 URL http://octave.sourceforge.net/splines
  32. Krakauer N Y Pradhanang S M Panthi J Lakhankar T Jha A K Probabilistic precipitation estimation with a satellite product Climate 2015b 3 2 329 348 10.3390/cli3020329
  33. Aizenman H Grossberg M D Krakauer N Y Gladkova I Ensemble forecasts: probabilistic seasonal forecasts based on a model ensemble Climate 2016 4 2 19 10.3390/cli4020019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.112 | Journal eISSN: 2049-9647
Language: English
Published on: May 20, 2016
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2016 Nir Y Krakauer, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.