Bridging the Under-Five Mortality Gap for Africa in the Era of Sustainable Development Goals: An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Analysis

Country	Under-5 mortality rate	Country	Under-5 mortality rate	Country	Under-5 mortality rate
Algeria	27.4	Gabon	63	Mozambique	103.8
Angola	182.5	Gambia	81.4	Namibia	55.4
Benin	111.6	Ghana	74.7	Niger	123.6
Botswana	60.3	Guinea	111.9	Nigeria	130.3
Burkina Faso	113.5	Guinea-Bissau	115.9	Rwanda	64.2
Burundi	98.8	Kenya	63.6	Senegal	64.8
Cameroon	106	Lesotho	101.5	Sierra Leone	160.2
Cape Verde	27.9	Liberia	89.3	South Africa	54.4
Central African Republic	150.9	Madagascar	60.3	Sudan	80.2
Chad	160.1	Malawi	92	Tanzania	62.3
Comoros	86	Mali	136.6	Togo	90.9
Congo, Dem. Rep.	116.1	Mauritania	97.8	Tunisia	17.4
Cote d’Ivoire	110.1	Mauritius	15.2	Uganda	79.5
Egypt	29	Morocco	33.1	Zambia	84.8
Equatorial Guinea	110.9
Ethiopia	75.7

Equal Interval Distribution of U5MR across Africa in 2010 and 2015.

Table 2

Categories of Independent Variables.

Social	Economic	Healthcare Access	Sanitary/Environmental
Total Fertility Rate	GNI per Capita	Per Capita Total Expenditure on Health	Per Cent Population with Access to Improved Sanitation
Adolescent Fertility Rate	Total Female Employment to Population Ratio	Out-of-pocket Expenditure as a Per Cent of Total Health Expenditure	Per Cent Population with Access to Improved Drinking Water Source
Total Adult Literacy Rate	Per Cent Population Living under National Poverty Line	Government Expenditure on Health as a Per Cent of Total Health Expenditure
Female Adult Literacy Rate
Rural Population

Table 3

Descriptive statistics for independent variables in the study.

Variable**	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Standard Deviation	Coefficient of Variation (Mean/SD)
Total Fertility	1.52	7.58	4.87	1.27	0.26
Adolescent Fertility	10.73	210.37	105.12	42.81	0.41
Adult Literacy	25.31	94.23	62.41	19.14	0.31
Female Literacy	12.19	92.18	54.83	22.88	0.42
Rural Per Cent	14.30	89.36	61.98	15.89	0.26
Income per Capita	560.00	26790.00	4042.33	5284.64	1.31
Female Employment	11.80	86.40	57.14	18.31	0.32
Poverty Level	8.00	76.80	46.21	15.90	0.34
Gov. Expenditure	1.84	20.08	10.14	3.94	0.39
Total Expenditure	11.90	896.19	122.25	192.95	1.58
Personal Expenditure	7.45	88.15	39.03	21.07	0.54
Sanitation	9.50	92.70	34.12	21.48	0.63
Water	44.00	99.00	69.14	15.89	0.23

[i] Note: Number of observations for all variables = 43.

**Abbreviations below are used in all tables throughout the paper.

Total Fertility = Total Fertility Rate; Adolescent Fertility = Adolescent Fertility Rate; Adult Literacy = Total Adult Literacy Rate; Female Literacy = Female Adult Literacy Rate; Rural Per Cent = Per Cent Rural Population; Income per Capita = Gross National Income per Capita; Female Employment = Total Female Employment to Population Ratio; Poverty Level = Per Cent Population Living under National Poverty Level; Government Expenditure = Per Cent Government Expenditure on Health Per Capita; Total Expenditure = Total Expenditure on Health; Personal Expenditure = Per Cent Out-of-Pocket Expenditure; Sanitation = Per Cent Population with Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities; Water = Per Cent Population with Access to Improved Drinking.

Table 4

Effect of Social Factors on Under-5 Mortality in Africa.

	Model 1-A		Model 1-B		Model 1-C		Model 1-D		Model 1-E		Model 1-F
Total Fertility	1.79	***									0.73	***
	(0.16)										(0.20)
Adolescent Fertility			0.14	***							0.06	***
			(0.01)								(0.02)
Female Literacy					–0.43	***					0.11
					(0.06)						(0.29)
Adult Literacy							–0.51	***			–0.22
							(0.06)				(0.33)
Rural Per Cent									0.57	***	0.29	***
									(0.06)		(0.05)
Africa Dummy	0.37	*	0.38	*	0.84	***	0.75	***	1.23	***	0.12
	(0.17)		(0.18)		(0.18)		(0.18)		(0.14)		(0.16)
Constant	1.29	***	1.47	***	3.65	***	3.93	***	2.87	***	2.03	***
	(0.14)		(0.13)		(0.16)		(0.19)		(0.09)		(0.30)
F-Statistic	185.9	***	174.1	***	121.6	***	122.8	***	134.9	***	109.6	***
Adj. R²	0.77		0.76		0.69		0.69		0.71		0.86

[i] Notes: Standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

Entries in the table are standardized regression coefficients.

Number of observations = 109.

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Table 5a

Effect of Economic Factors on Under-5 Mortality in Africa.

	Model 2-A		Model 2-B		Model 2-C		Model 2-D
Income per Capita	–0.64	***					–0.66	***
	(0.06)						(0.07)
Female Employment			0.00				–0.01.
			(0.01)				(0.00)
Poverty Level					0.43	***	0.01
					(0.11)		(0.09)
Africa Dummy	0.73	***	1.78	***	1.19	***	0.77	***
	(0.15)		(0.18)		(0.22)		(0.17)
Constant	8.66	***	2.58	***	3.27	***	9.07	***
	(0.55)		(0.23)		(0.20)		(0.62)
F-Statistic	182.3	***	56.7	***	71.9	***	93.1	***
Adj. R²	0.77		0.51		0.57		0.77

[i] Notes: Standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

Entries in the table are standardized regression coefficients.

Number of observations = 109.

.p < 0.1; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Table 5b

Effect of Healthcare Accessibility Factors on Under-5 Mortality in Africa.

	Model 3-A		Model 3-B		Model 3-C		Model 3-D
Gov. Expenditure	–0.12	***					–0.04	*
	(0.02)						(0.02)
Total Expenditure			–0.47	***			–0.42	***
			(0.03)				(0.04)
Personal Expenditure					0.13	***	–0.01
					(0.02)		(0.02)
Africa Dummy	1.66	***	0.86	***	1.69	***	0.93	***
	(0.14)		(0.12)		(0.15)		(0.12)
Constant	3.88	***	5.43	***	1.39	***	5.63	***
	(0.19)		(0.21)		(0.22)		(0.42)
F-Statistic	113.8	***	267.0	***	94.3	***	139.8	***
Adj. R²	0.68		0.83		0.63		0.84

[i] Notes: Standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

Entries in the table are standardized regression coefficients.

Number of observations = 109.

*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Table 6

Effect of Environmental Factors on Under-5 Mortality in Africa.

	Model 4-A		Model 4-B		Model 4-C
Water	–0.66	***			–0.42	***
	(0.05)				(0.06)
Sanitation			–0.53	***	–0.28	***
			(0.04)		(0.05)
Africa Dummy	0.65	***	0.30.		0.27.
	(0.13)		(0.16)		(0.14)
Constant	4.36	***	3.73	***	4.32	***
	(0.15)		(0.12)		(0.13)
F-Statistic	236.7	***	206.8	***	208.0	***
Adj. R²	0.82		0.79		0.85

[i] Notes: Standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

Entries in the table are standardized regression coefficients.

Number of observations = 109.

.p < 0.1; ***p < 0.001.

Table 7

Rank Ordering Categories.

Ind. Variable	β	SE	t-statistic
Africa*Healthcare Access	0.93	0.12	7.71	***
Africa*Economic	0.77	0.17	4.56	***
Africa*Environmental	0.28	0.14	1.98.
Africa*Social	0.12	0.16	0.76

[i] Number of observations = 109.

.p < 0.10; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Table 8

Effects of all factors on U5MR in Africa.

Ind. Variable	Model 5-A		Model 5-B		Model 5-C
Total Fertility	0.55	**	0.47	**
	(0.20)		(0.18)
Adolescent Fertility	0.04	**	0.04	**	0.05	***
	(0.01)		(0.01)		(0.01)
Female Literacy	0.30
	(0.25)
Adult Literacy	–0.28
	(0.30)
Rural Percent	0.08		0.09
	(0.06)		(0.06)
Income per Capita	0.14		0.20.		0.12
	(0.13)		(0.10)		(0.10)
Female Employment	–0.01.		–0.00.		–0.00.
	(0.00)		(0.00)		(0.00)
Poverty Level	0.02
	(0.07)
Gov. Expenditure	–0.01
	(0.02)
Total Expenditure	–0.23	*	–0.28	***	–0.27	***
	(0.09)		(0.07)		(0.07)
Personal Expenditure	0.01
	(0.02)
Water	–0.14	*	–0.15	*	–0.24	***
	(0.07)		(0.07)		(0.06)
Sanitation	–0.13	*	–0.12	*	–0.11	*
	(0.06)		(0.05)		(0.05)
AFRICA Dummy	0.23		0.23		0.30	*
	(0.15)		0.13		(0.13)
Constant	2.85	*	2.61	**	3.80	***
	(1.11)		(0.79)		(0.69)
F-statistic	74.2	***	117.0	***	140.2	***
Adj. R²	0.91		0.91		0.90

[i] Notes: Standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

Entries in the table are standardized regression coefficients.

Number of observations = 109.

.p < 0.1; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.

Table 9

Rank Ordering Variables according to their effects in Model 5-C.

Ind. Variable	β	SE	t-statistic
Adolescent Fertility	0.05	0.01	4.12	***
Water	–0.24	0.06	–4.10	***
Total Expenditure	–0.27	0.07	–3.76	***
Sanitation	–0.11	0.05	–2.04	*
Female Employment	–0.00	0.00	–0.07.

[i] Notes: Constant = 3.80, Adj. R² = 0.90, F = 144.2, p < 0.001.

.p < 0.1; *p < 0.05; ***p < 0.001.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.29024/aogh.9 | Journal eISSN: 2214-9996

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Language: English

Published on: Apr 30, 2018

Published by: Levy Library Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

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© 2018 Michael Acheampong, Chukwudi Ejiofor, Abraham Salinas-Miranda, Foday M. Jaward, Michael Eduful, Qiuyan Yu, published by Levy Library Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 84 (2018): Issue 1

Bridging the Under-Five Mortality Gap for Africa in the Era of Sustainable Development Goals: An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Analysis

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