Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database

Objective: This study aims to analyse the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in China and other G20 countries from 1990–2021 and predict the burden for the next decade.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we evaluated the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the incidence, mortality and DALY rates of IHD in China from 2021–2040.

Results: The ASRs of incidence, mortality and DALYs of IHD in China increased with EAPCs of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.82), 0.97 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.31) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.78), respectively. Compared with other G20 countries, China was ranked 14th for the ASR of incidence in 1990 and then rose to 7th in 2021. The ASR of prevalence for IHD in China jumped from 8th in 1990 to 5th in 2021, and both the ASR of mortality and DALYs for IHD in China ranked 7th in 2021. The top five risk factors affecting mortality in China in 2021 were high systolic blood pressure, dietary risk, air pollution, high LDL cholesterol and tobacco. Over the next 20 years, the ASR of incidence, mortality and DALYs for IHD will increase continuously in males.

Conclusion: The burden of IHD is expected to increase steadily in China, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies, particularly focusing on the elderly and male populations.