Figure 1
Flowchart of the included AVC patients. *Missing covariates: miss smoking (N = 14), miss drink (N = 22), miss income (N = 190), miss WHR (N = 1), miss ABI (N = 57), miss SBP (N = 331), miss RHR (N = 71), miss fast glucose (N = 114), miss Triglycerides (N = 1), miss LDL-C (N = 60), miss IL-6 (N = 224), miss CRP (N = 5), miss Lp[a] (N = 1571), miss NT-proBNP (N = 689).
Table 1
Baseline characteristics of progression and non-progression groups.
| LEVEL | OVERALL | NON-PROGRESSION | PROGRESSION | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | 2533 | 2289 | 244 | ||
| Age | 61.37 ± 10.28 | 60.61 ± 10.15 | 68.55 ± 8.71 | <0.001 | |
| Gender (%) | Female | 1133 (44.7) | 1055 (46.1) | 78 (32.0) | <0.001 |
| Male | 1400 (55.3) | 1234 (53.9) | 166 (68.0) | ||
| Race (%) | Caucasian | 1142 (45.1) | 1019 (44.5) | 123 (50.4) | 0.055 |
| Chinese | 197 (7.8) | 183 (8.0) | 14 (5.7) | ||
| African American | 647 (25.5) | 599 (26.2) | 48 (19.7) | ||
| Hispanic | 547 (21.6) | 488 (21.3) | 59 (24.2) | ||
| Smoke (%) | No | 1114 (44.0) | 1018 (44.5) | 96 (39.3) | 0.143 |
| Yes | 1419 (56.0) | 1271 (55.5) | 148 (60.7) | ||
| Drink (%) | No | 744 (29.4) | 659 (28.8) | 85 (34.8) | 0.058 |
| Yes | 1789 (70.6) | 1630 (71.2) | 159 (65.2) | ||
| Education (%) | Less than high school education | 357 (14.1) | 314 (13.7) | 43 (17.6) | 0.018 |
| College education | 1021 (40.3) | 911 (39.8) | 110 (45.1) | ||
| Graduate school Education | 1155 (45.6) | 1064 (46.5) | 91 (37.3) | ||
| Income | Income < 25,000/year | 705 (27.8) | 610 (26.7) | 95 (38.9) | <0.001 |
| Income > 50,000 and ≤ 100,000/year | 1408 (55.6) | 1287 (56.2) | 121 (49.6) | ||
| Income > 100,000/year | 420 (16.6) | 392 (17.1) | 28 (11.5) | ||
| BMI (kg/m2) | 28.21 ± 5.31 | 28.20 ± 5.36 | 28.25 ± 4.84 | 0.885 | |
| WHR | 0.92 ± 0.08 | 0.92 ± 0.08 | 0.96 ± 0.07 | <0.001 | |
| ABI | 1.13 ± 0.11 | 1.13 ± 0.11 | 1.11 ±0.13 | 0.008 | |
| Hypertension | No | 1555 (61.4) | 1449 (63.3) | 106 (43.4) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 978 (38.6) | 840 (36.7) | 138 (56.6) | ||
| Diabetes stage | Normal | 1946 (76.8) | 1782 (77.9) | 164 (67.2) | <0.001 |
| Impaired fasting glucose | 356 (14.1) | 313 (13.7) | 43 (17.6) | ||
| Diabetes | 231 (9.1) | 194 (8.5) | 37 (15.2) | ||
| SBP (mmHg) | 125.39 ± 20.36 | 124.60 ± 20.08 | 132.71 ± 21.49 | <0.001 | |
| DBP (mmHg) | 72.45 ± 10.21 | 72.39 ± 10.21 | 72.97 ± 10.12 | 0.399 | |
| Fastglucose (mg/dL) | 95.02 ± 25.53 | 94.41 ± 24.59 | 100.86 ± 32.55 | <0.001 | |
| Triglycerides (mg/dL) | 123.95 ± 66.52 | 123.10 ± 66.78 | 131.92 ± 63.60 | 0.045 | |
| LDL-C (mg/dL) | 119.34 ± 30.86 | 119.15 ± 30.76 | 121.16 ± 31.81 | 0.333 | |
| HDL-C (mg/dL) | 51.21 ± 15.17 | 51.45 ± 15.04 | 48.91 ± 16.26 | 0.013 | |
| Total cholesterol (mg/dL) | 195.34 ± 34.09 | 195.23 ± 33.94 | 196.43 ± 35.52 | 0.601 | |
| IL-6 (pg/mL) | 1.53 ± 1.18 | 1.51 ± 1.16 | 1.78 ± 1.34 | <0.001 | |
| CRP (mg/L) | 3.48 ± 4.76 | 3.45 ± 4.70 | 3.70 ± 5.36 | 0.453 | |
| Lipoprotein[a] (mg/dL) | 28.51 ± 30.83 | 27.78 ± 30.54 | 35.34 ± 32.72 | <0.001 | |
| NT-proBNP (pg/mL) | 89.66 ± 129.88 | 85.90 ± 117.38 | 124.94 ± 211.36 | <0.001 | |
| EGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) | 81.67 ± 15.85 | 82.30 ±15.56 | 75.80 ± 17.30 | <0.001 | |
| Resting heart rate (beats/min) | 62.43 ± 9.43 | 62.31 ± 9.36 | 63.57 ± 10.00 | 0.047 | |
| HCY (umol/L) | 9.37 ± 3.89 | 9.26 ± 3.83 | 10.41 ± 4.29 | <0.001 | |
| CAC degree | No | 1335 (52.7) | 1271 (55.5) | 64 (26.2) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 1198 (47.3) | 1018 (44.5) | 180 (73.8) | ||
| AVC degree | No | 2227 (87.9) | 2141 (93.5) | 86 (35.3) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 306 (12.1) | 148 (6.5) | 158 (64.8) | ||
| MVC degree | No | 2316 (91.4) | 2121 (92.7) | 195 (79.9) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 217 (8.6) | 168 (7.3) | 49 (20.1) | ||
| CAC score at exam 2 or 3 | 137.01 ± 377.64 | 112.74 ± 332.63 | 364.68 ± 621.82 | <0.001 | |
| AVC score at exam 2 or 3 | 23.40 ± 145.20 | 13.20 ± 115.15 | 119.15 ± 290.95 | <0.001 | |
| MVC score at exam 2 or 3 | 37.58 ± 374.37 | 34.97 ± 381.13 | 62.07 ± 303.29 | 0.283 |
Figure 2
Correlation analysis of all variables at baseline.
Figure 3
Construction of LASSO-Cox regression model. (A, B, C) LASSO Cox analysis identified seven variables most correlated to overall progression in verification set and train set. (D, E, F, G) Kaplan–Meier curves of overall survival based on the model in verification set and train set and ROC curve analysis of the model.
Table 2
The weight of the selected predictor.
| HR | 95CI | P_VALUE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 1.056 | 1.038–1.075 | <0.001 |
| Gender | 1.338 | 0.947–1.890 | 0.099 |
| WHR | 8.059 | 0.668–97.180 | 0.100 |
| Fastglucose (mg/dL) | 1.004 | 1.001–1.008 | 0.022 |
| Lipoprotein[a] (mg/dL) | 1.007 | 1.003–1.012 | 0.002 |
| RHR (beats/min) | 1.011 | 0.996–1.026 | 0.146 |
| AVC degree | 9.417 | 6.694–13.247 | <0.001 |
Figure 4
Construction of the nomogram model. (A) Nomogram model for predicting the probability of 2-, 3- and 4-year progressive rate. (B) Calibration plots of the nomogram for predicting the probability of 2-, 3- and 4-year progressive rate in train set. (C) Calibration plots of the nomogram for predicting the probability of 2-, 3- and 4-year progressive rate in verification set.
Figure 5
Decision curve analysis of prediction probability of training set and verification set at 2, 3, and 4 years.