Table 1
Global and Regional ASMR and trends for ischemic heart disease from 1990 to 2021.
| LOCATION | 1990 | 2021 | 1990–2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEATH CASES | ASMR | DEATH CASES | ASMR | EAPC | NET DRIFT | |
| (×103)(95% UI) | (PER 100,000)(95% UI) | (×103)(95% UI) | (PER 100,000)(95% UI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | |
| Global | 5367.14 (5076.40,5562.77) | 158.9 (148.14,165.3) | 8991.64 (8264.12,9531.13) | 108.73 (99.6,115.38) | –1.301 (–1.341,–1.26) | –1.1 (–1.15,–1.06) |
| SDI region | ||||||
| High SDI | 1732.39 (1591.27,1797.85) | 157.59 (144.19,163.92) | 1392.37 (1217.17,1489.07) | 58.45 (52.18,61.92) | –3.428 (–3.533,–3.324) | –2.77 (–2.92,–2.62) |
| High-middle SDI | 1604.86 (1527.81,1657.94) | 193.94 (182.11,200.6) | 2450.43 (2218.84,2647.30) | 127.5 (115.03,137.72) | –1.564 (–1.771,–1.356) | –2.21 (–2.33,–2.08) |
| Middle SDI | 1038.97 (978.52,1100.28) | 127.06 (118.35,134.97) | 2811.12 (2564.66,3023.43) | 118.71 (107.23,127.8) | –0.115 (–0.186,–0.045) | –0.37 (–0.44,–0.31) |
| Low-middle SDI | 753.13 (698.70,804.55) | 140.99 (129.76,151.24) | 1834.65 (1699.51,1964.08) | 142.1 (131.3,151.87) | 0.159 (0.086,0.232) | –0.12 (–0.2,–0.03) |
| Low SDI | 228.81 (202.39,255.18) | 119.5 (106.26,132.45) | 493.48 (448.13,543.12) | 116.41 (105.21,127.69) | 0.006 (–0.102,0.113) | –0.46 (–0.57,–0.35) |
| GBD region | ||||||
| High-income North America | 644.90 (580.45,675.67) | 177.72 (160.27,186.07) | 534.77 (468.40,571.53) | 75.85 (67.17,80.6) | –3.09 (–3.238,–2.942) | –2.59 (–2.76,–2.41) |
| Southern Latin America | 62.79 (59.93,64.74) | 149.43 (141.12,154.54) | 49.10 (45.02,51.73) | 54.41 (50.08,57.26) | –2.918 (–3.076,–2.76) | –2.73 (–2.9,–2.56) |
| High-income Asia Pacific | 117.62 (107.06,122.95) | 67.04 (59.85,70.5) | 152.70 (124.00,168.79) | 25.56 (21.78,27.65) | –3.041 (–3.201,–2.881) | –2.74 (–3.16,–2.33) |
| Australasia | 40.16 (37.29,41.66) | 176.76 (162.82,184.02) | 28.64 (24.37,30.97) | 46.67 (40.23,50.21) | –4.524 (–4.622,–4.426) | –4.55 (–4.88,–4.22) |
| Western Europe | 879.29 (811.26,910.87) | 148.22 (136.54,153.85) | 543.04 (463.99,584.34) | 47.27 (41.45,50.42) | –3.894 (–3.991,–3.797) | –4.12 (–4.33,–3.92) |
| East Asia | 570.43 (505.99,639.93) | 93.92 (83.87,105.3) | 2008.01 (1683.97,2335.23) | 108.9 (91.18,125.79) | 0.896 (0.586,1.208) | –0.02 (–0.21,0.16) |
| Central Asia | 131.77 (124.69,136.25) | 320.47 (299.83,332.36) | 175.39 (159.20,192.41) | 265.51 (240.67,290.42) | –1.012 (–1.287,–0.736) | –2.31 (–2.46,–2.15) |
| South Asia | 708.22 (643.04,771.05) | 136.39 (122.87,149.55) | 1990.11 (1824.49,2155.70) | 149.14 (136.97,161.16) | 0.436 (0.302,0.571) | –0.03 (–0.18,0.13) |
| Southeast Asia | 252.65 (229.37,275.07) | 114.72 (103.39,125.65) | 638.70 (575.91,694.08) | 110.92 (100.18,120.2) | –0.103 (–0.18,–0.025) | –0.21 (–0.25,–0.17) |
| Oceania | 4.53 (3.75,5.49) | 182.55 (155.47,217.42) | 11.14 (9.33,13.32) | 170.89 (145.43,201.15) | –0.182 (–0.224,–0.141) | –0.17 (–0.32,–0.02) |
| Central Europe | 364.09 (349.91,371.87) | 272.56 (259.22,279.18) | 331.28 (299.88,352.60) | 139.98 (126.84,148.91) | –2.455 (–2.557,–2.353) | –3.42 (–3.61,–3.24) |
| Eastern Europe | 786.27 (751.13,803.30) | 323.17 (305.26,331.76) | 903.62 (811.06,990.58) | 252.89 (226.96,277.15) | –1.237 (–1.691,–0.782) | –2.3 (–2.62,–1.97) |
| Andean Latin America | 17.09 (15.55,18.72) | 92.95 (84.56,101.24) | 32.96 (28.04,39.37) | 58.17 (49.56,69.33) | –1.741 (–2.118,–1.363) | –1.72 (–1.82,–1.62) |
| Central Latin America | 88.86 (84.86,90.85) | 125.72 (118.69,129.14) | 247.05 (221.19,273.15) | 103.69 (92.48,114.59) | –0.764 (–0.997,–0.532) | –0.52 (–0.6,–0.43) |
| Tropical Latin America | 107.55 (102.01,110.64) | 135.91 (126.39,140.82) | 162.30 (149.05,170.32) | 64.49 (58.98,67.84) | –2.272 (–2.367,–2.176) | –1.87 (–1.97,–1.78) |
| Caribbean | 44.60 (42.48,46.17) | 188.97 (179.08,195.79) | 61.45 (54.94,69.04) | 112.5 (100.51,126.54) | –1.706 (–1.899,–1.513) | –0.93 (–1.05,–0.8) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 386.04 (357.95,418.21) | 275.18 (253.62,299.12) | 769.14 (685.36,858.25) | 202.85 (180.59,223.68) | –1.026 (–1.075,–0.977) | –1.41 (–1.5,–1.32) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 23.27 (18.25,29.48) | 134.9 (107.86,167.2) | 49.85 (38.89,63.65) | 119.34 (93.7,150.29) | –0.572 (–0.655,–0.489) | –0.59 (–0.68,–0.5) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 43.99 (39.10,50.52) | 69.44 (61.05,78.85) | 101.22 (87.73,117.27) | 72.16 (62.09,82.99) | –0.055 (–0.14,0.03) | –0.43 (–0.48,–0.38) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 17.90 (15.56,19.84) | 75.96 (64.95,84.84) | 39.82 (36.78,43.19) | 83.44 (76.93,90.19) | 0.266 (–0.128,0.661) | –0.56 (–0.79,–0.32) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 75.12 (64.54,87.13) | 105.29 (90.24,121.56) | 161.33 (140.03,185.44) | 105.97 (92.83,120.17) | 0.024 (–0.101,0.149) | –0.23 (–0.28,–0.17) |
[i] ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; CI, confidential interval; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; SDI, socio-demographic index; UI, uncertainty interval.
Figure 1
Trends in IHD mortality from 1990 to 2021. (A) and (B) show the death numbers (in thousands) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR, per 100,000 population) across different SDI regions, respectively. (C) presents the death numbers and ASMR across different GBD regions.
ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; GBD, Global Burden of Disease; IHD, Ischemic heart disease; SDI, socio-demographic index.
Figure 2
Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and trends for IHD from 1990 to 2021 in 204 countries and territories. (A) and (B) show the ASMR (per 100,000 population) in 1990 and 2021, respectively. (C) presents the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ASMR (% per year) by country, and (D) illustrates the net drift of ASMR (% per year) over the study period.
ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; IHD, Ischemic heart disease.
Figure 3
Age, period, and cohort effects on IHD mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 in different SDI regions and across both sexes. (A) shows the local drifts (% per year) by age group, (B) illustrates the age effects (mortality rates per 100,000 population), (C) presents the period effects (log2 mortality rate ratios over time), and (D) depicts the cohort effects (log2 mortality rate ratios by birth cohort). Each panel includes data for both sexes, males, and females.
IHD, Ischemic heart disease; SDI, socio-demographic index.
Figure 4
Relationship between the SDI and ASMR for IHD from 1990 to 2021. The top panel shows ASMR (per 100,000 population) against SDI for 204 countries and territories. The bottom panel displays the effective difference trend line, indicating the gap between observed and potentially achievable ASMR in 2021 across the same countries and territories.
ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; IHD, Ischemic heart disease; SDI, socio-demographic index.
Figure 5
(A). Contributions of aging, epidemiological change, and population growth to changes in IHD mortality from 1990 to 2021 across different SDI and GBD regions. (B). Risk factor contributions to total IHD deaths in 2021 across different SDI and GBD regions.
GBD, Global Burden of Disease; IHD, Ischemic heart disease; SDI, socio-demographic index.
Figure 6
BAPC projections for 2022 to 2036, showing predicted death numbers (in thousands) and ASMR (per 100,000 population) across different GBD regions.
ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; BAPC, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort; GBD, Global Burden of Disease