Global Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality from 1990 to 2021 and 2036 Projections: Insights from GBD 2021 Data
By: Xiaoqin Zhou, Weiqiang Ruan, Hui Jie, Huizhen Liu, Ting Wang, Jing Li, Ke Lin and Jing Lin
References
- Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, Addolorato G, Ammirati E, Baddour LM, et al. Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019: Update from the GBD 2019 Study. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2020;76:2982–3021. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2020.11.010
- Tong Z, Xie Y, Li K, Yuan R, Zhang L. The global burden and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in adolescent and young adults, 1990–2019. BMC Public Health. 2024;24:
1017 . DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18445-6 - Nowbar AN, Gitto M, Howard JP, Francis DP, Al-Lamee R. Mortality from ischemic heart disease. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2019;12:
e5375 . DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.118.005375 - Prabhakaran D, Singh K, Roth GA, Banerjee A, Pagidipati NJ, Huffman MD. Cardiovascular diseases in India compared with the United States. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2018;72:79–95. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2018.04.042
- Sucato V, Coppola G, Manno G, Vadalà G, Novo G, Corrado E, et al. Coronary artery disease in South Asian patients: Cardiovascular risk factors, pathogenesis and treatments. Curr Probl Cardiol. 2023;48:
101228 . DOI: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2022.101228 - Shu T, Tang M, He B, Liu X, Han Y, Liu C, et al. Assessing global, regional, and national time trends and associated risk factors of the mortality in ischemic heart disease through Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study: Population-based study. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024;10:
e46821 . DOI: 10.2196/46821 - Yuan R, Tong Z, Chen JX, Wang Y, Zhou YF. Global burden of ischemic heart disease in adolescents and young adults, 1990–2019. Am J Prev Med. 2024;66:751–759. DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2023.12.009
- Wang W, Hu M, Liu H, Zhang X, Li H, Zhou F, et al. Global burden of disease study 2019 suggests that metabolic risk factors are the leading drivers of the burden of ischemic heart disease. Cell Metab. 2021;33:1943–1956. DOI: 10.1016/j.cmet.2021.08.005
- GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2024;403:2162–2203. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4
- GBD 2021 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2024;403:2100–2132. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00367-2
- GBD 2021 diseases and injuries collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2024;403:2133–2161. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8
- Rosenberg PS, Check DP, Anderson WF. A web tool for age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014;23:2296–2302. DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-14-0300
- He P, Liu Z, Baiocchi G, Guan D, Bai Y, Hubacek K. Health-environment efficiency of diets shows nonlinear trends over 1990–2011. Nat Food. 2024;5:116–124. DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00924-z
- Rosenberg PS, Anderson WF. Proportional hazards models and age-period-cohort analysis of cancer rates. Stat Med. 2010;29:1228–1238. DOI: 10.1002/sim.3865
- Abou JG, Garcia BI, Nguhiu P, Siroka A, Palmer T, Goscé L, et al. National tuberculosis spending efficiency and its associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries, 2010–19: A data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis. Lancet Glob Health. 2022;10:e649–e660. DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00085-7
- Zhu J, Li S, Li X, Wang L, Du L, Qiu Y. Impact of population ageing on cancer-related disability-adjusted life years: A global decomposition analysis. J Glob Health. 2024;14:
4144 . DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04144 - Cheng X, Yang Y, Schwebel DC, Liu Z, Li L, Cheng P, et al. Population ageing and mortality during 1990–2017: A global decomposition analysis. PLoS Med. 2020;17:
e1003138 . DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003138 - Riebler A, Held L. Projecting the future burden of cancer: Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations. Biom J. 2017;59:531–549. DOI: 10.1002/bimj.201500263
- Vollset SE, Goren E, Yuan CW, Cao J, Smith AE, Hsiao T, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study. Lancet. 2020;396:1285–1306. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
- Stevens GA, Alkema L, Black RE, Boerma JT, Collins GS, Ezzati M, et al. Guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting: the GATHER statement. Lancet. 2016;388:e19–e23. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30388-9
- Mensah GA, Fuster V, Murray C, Roth GA. Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risks, 1990–2022. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2023;82:2350–2473. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.11.007
- Nedkoff L, Briffa T, Zemedikun D, Herrington S, Wright FL. Global trends in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Clin Ther. 2023;45:1087–1091. DOI: 10.1016/j.clinthera.2023.09.020
- Yusuf S, Joseph P, Rangarajan S, Islam S, Mente A, Hystad P, et al. Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155 722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): A prospective cohort study. Lancet. 2020;395:795–808. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32008-2
- North BJ, Sinclair DA. The intersection between aging and cardiovascular disease. Circ Res. 2012;110:1097–1108. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.111.246876
- Mocumbi AO. Cardiovascular health care in low- and middle-income countries. Circulation. 2024;149:557–559. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.065717
- Mosca L, Barrett-Connor E, Wenger NK. Sex/gender differences in cardiovascular disease prevention: What a difference a decade makes. Circulation. 2011;124:2145–2154. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.968792
- Shams P, Hussain M, Karani S, Mahmood S, Hasan A, Siddiqi S, et al. Can sound public health policies stem the tide of burgeoning epidemic of cardiovascular disease in south Asians? Curr Cardiol Rep. 2021;23:
181 . DOI: 10.1007/s11886-021-01612-1 - Zhao D. Epidemiological features of cardiovascular disease in Asia. JACC Asia. 2021;1:1–13. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacasi.2021.04.007
- Kario K, Okura A, Hoshide S, Mogi M. The WHO Global report 2023 on hypertension warning the emerging hypertension burden in globe and its treatment strategy. Hypertens Res. 2024;47:1099–1102. DOI: 10.1038/s41440-024-01622-w
- Ettehad D, Emdin CA, Kiran A, Anderson SG, Callender T, Emberson J, et al. Blood pressure lowering for prevention of cardiovascular disease and death: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. 2016;387:957–967. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01225-8
- Montone RA, Rinaldi R, Bonanni A, Severino A, Pedicino D, Crea F, et al. Impact of air pollution on ischemic heart disease: Evidence, mechanisms, clinical perspectives. Atherosclerosis. 2023;366:22–31. DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2023.01.013
- Mumtaz A, Rehman N, Haider A, Rehman S. Long-term air pollution exposure and ischemic heart disease mortality among elderly in high aging Asian economies. Front Public Health. 2021;9:
819123 . DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.819123 - GBD 2021 diabetes collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2023;402:203–234. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01301-6
- NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: A pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet. 2024;403:1027–1050. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02750-2
- Iso H. A Japanese health success story: Trends in cardiovascular diseases, their risk factors, and the contribution of public health and personalized approaches. Epma J. 2011;2:49–57. DOI: 10.1007/s13167-011-0067-0
- Kang HT. Current status of the national health screening programs in South Korea. Korean J Fam Med. 2022;43:168–73. DOI: 10.4082/kjfm.22.0052
- Kuwabara M, Mori M, Komoto S. Japanese national plan for promotion of measures against cerebrovascular and cardiovascular disease. Circulation. 2021;143:1929–31. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.052737
- Cenko E, Manfrini O, Fabin N, Dorobantu M, Kedev S, Milicic D, et al. Clinical determinants of ischemic heart disease in Eastern Europe. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2023;33:
100698 . DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100698 - Movsisyan NK, Vinciguerra M, Medina-Inojosa JR, Lopez-Jimenez F. Cardiovascular diseases in Central and Eastern Europe: A call for more surveillance and evidence-based health promotion. Ann Glob Health. 2020;86:
21 . DOI: 10.5334/aogh.2713 - Yuyun MF, Sliwa K, Kengne AP, Mocumbi AO, Bukhman G. Cardiovascular diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to high-income countries: An epidemiological perspective. Glob Heart. 2020;15:
15 . DOI: 10.5334/gh.403 - Cappuccio FP, Miller MA. Cardiovascular disease and hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa: burden, risk and interventions. Intern Emerg Med. 2016;11:299–305. DOI: 10.1007/s11739-016-1423-9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/gh.1486 | Journal eISSN: 2211-8179
Language: English
Submitted on: Dec 9, 2024
Accepted on: Sep 29, 2025
Published on: Oct 10, 2025
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
© 2025 Xiaoqin Zhou, Weiqiang Ruan, Hui Jie, Huizhen Liu, Ting Wang, Jing Li, Ke Lin, Jing Lin, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.